Monday, February 22, 2010

Commodities Tumble- USD Strength Resumes by Michael Boutros

The dollar was firmer today pushing the euro to near nine-month lows as positive data from the US boosts sentiments on the strength of the recovery. Aiding the greenback was speculation that the Fed will soon begin unwinding stimulus measures as the US recovery gains traction. The euro continued to drift lower, losing a total of 1.8% from yesterdays' highs of 1.3787, to session lows at the daily pivot at 1.3538. The recent 200+ pip swings on back to back sessions is a testament to the uncertainty of the current news driven market. If euro holds beneath the 1.36 figure, the single currency risks losses down to the 1.3530 low tested on Feb 12th. A break here leaves targets at 1.35 and 1.3480, where the weekly pivot converges with the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the Feb 9th and 17th crests. Further down, demand sits at 1.34 and 1.3353. Significant resistance still lies at 1.3780, then at 1.3875 followed by 1.3933.

Commodities Plummet

Commodities across the board were down today. With news that the IMF is planning on selling more of its gold holdings, the precious metal continued to fall, losing more than 1%, for a total loss of $28 from yesterday's highs of $1127.25. Crude also fell 1.6% to $76.40 early in the session as the dollar continued to push higher. Commodity currencies like the aussie remain under pressure. Having lost .5% pre-market open in London, the aussie tested the .8940 support level before leveling off around .8965. Maintaining its upward channel from the Feb 5th lows, considerable losses are likely with a break of .8940 with additional support at .8911. To the upside, a break of .9040 could make way for advances up to .9090 and then .9169.

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